Before starting, a small confession: when I say you'll "never" buy another PC, I actually mean that you'll probably continue to buy PCs for another 10-15 years and then never again after that. One lesson I've learned in blogging (and perusing the metrics for the website I manage for AT&T), is that click-bait titles really drive engagement. If I wanted to maximize clicks, I would have titled this blog post "Taylor Swift and Jennifer Lawrence just wanted to catch a cab...you won't believe what happened next."
Semi-provocative title notwithstanding, I do have a serious point about the future of the market for personal computers and what it means for the business and you as a consumer. The market for PCs has endured changes through the years, but one thing has remained constant: people generally purchase a computer for themselves or their family that has the features they want at a price they can afford, use it until it breaks down or no longer performs the functions they require, then sell it for a fraction of what they paid and buy a new one.
So, what's wrong with this? First of all, it's bad for consumers for a variety of reasons. Despite their ubiquity, computers are actually very complicated machines and most people simply do not have the technical expertise to maintain them, much less repair them. Support from the manufacturer tends to be expensive, and, in my experience, generally just recommends creative ways you can spend more money to fix it. And when the computer starts to break down, it tends to happen at the most inconvenient time. This process is also extremely inflexible. Buying a new computer is a big purchase and not something people do frequently. In fact, sometimes computing needs change drastically and in unexpected ways, for instance when someone returns to school, starts a new job, or sees that a new version of Doom is released. And when a new computer is purchased, just the process of transferring data and setting it up can be painful.
The solution to this problem is something corporations are already starting to do: cloud computing. When most people hear the "cloud", they probably think about Google Drive or Dropbox or some similar service (though I did read a statistic that 1/3 of people think it refers to actual rain clouds or something to do with weather). That is cloud storage, but I'm referring to cloud computing. If your hard drive can reside in a remote location over the internet, why can't your processor, memory, and applications as well? In fact, the only aspects of your computer that need to be physically present with you are your monitor, any input devices (keyboard, mouse, etc.), and some way to connect to the internet. The computer you will use will become a "thin client" that is almost completely dependent on the cloud for functionality.
Think about what this means for consumers. First of all, these "thin clients" will literally be much thinner, as powerful processors and hard drives will not need to be present. The real computer that a consumer uses will exist in another physical location, which means that it can be maintained by a professional. No more worrying about virus scans, upgrades of operating systems, or updated drivers; that will all be taken care of. When your computer no longer suits your needs, your cloud computing provider will have an option to upgrade to a more powerful machine in a matter of minutes (and you won't have to go through the indignity of selling the old one on Craigslist). All of your data will exist in the cloud and will be automatically backed up on redundant, secure servers. All of this with no massive one-time fee to purchase a machine, but rather a small monthly fee to gain access.
That's not to say that there are no negatives to this new model. First, connectivity goes from being fairly essential to absolutely and utterly indispensable. Any outage could paralyze a user or business from doing anything. Security will also be more important, as all of a user's data is stored remotely, though the industry is trending in this direction anyway. This will make practices such as two-factor authentication much more common. Also, privacy policies will need to be monitored. Consumers are accustomed to seeing targeted ads on the websites they visit, but what if a company decided to put ads on your actual computer? Are you ready to fire up your machine in the morning and see Flo from Progressive Insurance as your desktop background (even if it means your monthly rate is reduced)?
As stated earlier, corporations have already started down this path. There are a variety of reasons this is a more obvious step for a company than an individual. For starters, this provides scalability options that companies would not otherwise have. A company that has seasonal needs (think a tax return preparation firm, for example) would want to scale up during peak season and down during off-peak. Many corporations would prefer the ability to book the cost of computing as an expense rather than a capital expenditure (which will depreciate) as well. And some companies just do not have the resources to staff an IT department devoted to maintenance of employee machines.
What does this mean for the industry as a whole? With apologies to Apple, computers will become even more of a commodity than they already are. Design, style, or brand of the actual computer will not matter at all (though this may still be an issue with the thin clients that consumers use). Consumers will buy based on price, reliability, and service level. Presumably, the total cost of computing will come down. The industry of cloud computing power will be able to pool resources; in other words, they will not have one computer for every user, because every user does not need their computer 24/7. The concept is similar to fractional reserve banking: the bank does not actually have the money that it claims is in your checking account, because it's highly unlikely everyone will need their money at the same time.
Furthering the analogy of fractional reserve banking, will government require a "reserve ratio" of computing power as a percentage of total users? How will this be enforced? Could there be a "run on the computers" that would leave some users with slower speeds or potentially without computing power at all?
I, for one, am excited about the future of personal computers. By using a cloud computing model with monthly access fees, users will receive a machine more suited to their needs, probably at a lower overall cost. Less technologically-savvy users will have better support and upgrades will be more seamless. It'll be interesting to see how the industry reacts to such a disruption and how the new cloud computing providers will differentiate their businesses in what is sure to be a competitive market.
